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Opus News & Insights

New Regime, Newfound Optimism
Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Quick Look

  • To the surprise of many, it was bonds that sold off in the aftermath of the election, while stocks rallied into December and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed towards an unprecedented height of 20,000.
  • For the year, the S&P 500 Index finished the year up 12%, a return nobody expected in February when the index was down 10% and off to its worst start in history.
  • Bond yields have risen rapidly, with the 10-Year Treasury yield up more than a full percentage point since its July bottom.
  • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index dropped 3% last quarter, its largest quarterly drop since 1981.
  • The U.S. Dollar has surged to a 14-year high against a basket of 16 other currencies (WSJ Dollar Index) on the heels of the election and the Fed’s move to raise interest rates.
  • Thus far, markets have taken an optimistic view of the presumptive shift in policy dynamics.
  • Economists are revising GDP forecasts for stronger U.S. and global growth. Inflation expectations are back, as TIPS breakeven rates jumped above 2.0% following the election. 
  • For those investors who were willing to ride the ups and downs, 2016 provided surprisingly solid portfolio returns, particularly for higher risk investors.
2016 may have come to an end, but it will not soon be forgotten. Whereas 2015 was marked by flat and idling markets, 2016 was a roller coaster of plunges and surges amidst political twists and turns...

Whither Brexit, Withering Rates
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  • Opus Insights
  • WM Newsletters
    • 07/12/2017 - Better Than Normal
    • 04/10/2017 - Lately, All Ladders
    • 01/11/2017 - New Regime, Newfound Optimism
    • 10/07/2016 - The Waiting Game
    • 07/08/2016 - Whither Brexit, Withering Rate
    • 06/24/2016 - The Brexit Vote
    • 04/15/2016 - In Like a Lion (or Should We S
    • 01/15/2016 - Running in Place in 2015
    • 10/15/2015 - Long-Awaited Correction Arrive
    • 07/13/2015 - Equity Markets Flat, Bonds Fal
    • 04/13/2015 - Review of First Quarter 2015
    • 02/17/2015 - Divergent Paths: Large U.S. St
         
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